Opinion Polls & the General Election

Iain Dale has drawn up a unique way of deciding how the results will be at the next general election (see here), mainly by looking at each individual seat rather than a blanket coverage of current opinion polls. It's fascinating stuff and, obviously, I hope he is wrong in his analysis. Apart from the possibility that Labour might actually win a fourth term, he does not seem to have taken into account the depressing possibility of low voter turnout as a result of the MP's expenses scandal, which could easily affect all the main parties.

But lets argue for a moment that Iain is spot on. This would be depressing, it would not only mean a Conservative government, it would mean a government where Cameron might have to listen to the views of his hard-line Thatcherite backbenchers, ergo a return to a Conservative government with a Pre 1997 mentality that does not take into account that political parties that spend years in opposition have a moral obligation to the electorate that they have to reform themselves ideologically. Labour had to do it and it would be unfair on the British public if the Tories failed to do the same. In human terms this means a govt with a slim majority not being able to heal the economy and lurching from one crisis to the next, not governing at all and blaming all their woes, and I mean ALL their woes on Labour! And all along it means we are dealing with high unemployment and low standards of living and public services which the Tories will cheerfully cut, whilst of course blaming Labour.

It would also mean a strong third party where the Lib Dems are concerned. A political party that would happily spend a lot of it's energy fighting a hurt and bruised opposition party where Labour are concerned and that will mean we won't have an effective opposition fighting machine.

This may not happen, but lets work hard to make sure it doesn't