The No Deal Brexit Britain. A Fictional Historical View From 2039

This is a potential study of the possibility of what would happen if a No Deal Brexit occurs. This is not to say it will happen, or that these events will happen strictly as written if a No Deal Brexit happens, rather as a warning of the potential consequences 

APRIL 2019

So the fears of many were confirmed, the U.K. crashed out of the EU. Through the ignorance of many, the opportunity of some, and the incompetence and the inability to compromise of others. Already the economy tanked, the pound went through the floor on the stock exchange, there were gridlocks at airports, sea ports, and at St Pancras Station in London, in spite of the best efforts of the deployed military to keep things going. The Prime Minister made several broadcasts on TV already mentioning austerity measures, the need to save money, food, fuel, you name it! There were riots in Dover, London, Liverpool, and Newcastle, with many people saying "This is not what we voted for!" and "You cannot trust politicians!" There were explosions and rioting in Belfast and Derry/Londonderry, and a massive rally in Edinburgh with a keynote speech by Nicola Stirgeon calling for Scottish independence and an immediate application afterwards to join the EU. Police protection was given to both prominent Leave and Remain campaigners

MAY 2019
Amidst great pressure Theresa May resigned, stating that she only tried to follow the country's wishes. In the ensuing fractious leadership challenge, Michael Gove topped the Poll by a massive majority of MP's, Boris Johnson getting only 32 votes, Anna Soubry 15, and Sajid Javid 57. Johnson and Soubry withdraw and Gove went to Buckingham Palace two days later and became Prime Minister

JULY 2019
Amidst a subsidence of rioting, but continued unrest and polls predicting 60% of Scots wanted independence and panic talks in Belfast to end the current violence, Gove travelled to Washington to secure a deal with the Trump administration including a huge financial package. Of course there were stings in the tail! Trade deals accepting US pharmaceutical aid with the condition that the NHS is dismantled piecemeal and under the control of various US companies, a "reconstruction" of welfare within the UK, and a pledge to "back" the UK's concerns when signing for WTO rules, which happened within weeks. There were calls for a general election which Gove refused, knowing full well that the result would be even more of a hung Parliament than there was already. In the midst of all this, Vince Cable resigned and in the absence of other candidates, Jo Swinson was declared leader. There were also worrying reports of the rise of the far right and "militias" being formed, and some parts of the U.K. were put under martial law, including Northern Ireland!

DECEMBER 2019
It was a difficult Christmas for many with many high street shops having some empty shelves and even attempts to stave of rapid inflation with massive loans from the US did not stop people being unable to afford much in the way of buying presents. Use of iPhones, laptops, any internet access declined heavily due to the massive costs involved. Much seething unrest was tempered by military presence, and calls for a general election, and many Scots on being told that a referendum was some years away, started behaving as if Scotland was independent  already with constant issues with independence campaigners erecting border posts, only to be dismantled by the military and cases of some English people being asked to show their passport in various shops and other public places in Scotland. Prime Minister Gove decided a general election might be ideal if a workable coalition could be formed. Meanwhile Labour was facing a major crisis as there were calls for Corbyn to quit and many activists demanding that at least one MP show some guts and bring forth a leadership challenge

FEBRUARY 2020
With the long queues at border posts ending, but with the cost of living still high, many British people started to emigrate. Top of the list included those who managed to secure a passport from an EU country or who had duel nationality anyway. Meanwhile amidst much pressure and with some fractures among the hard left, Corbyn finally resigned and Yvette Cooper was elected Labour leader, decisively beating Richard Burgon and Emily Thornberry. A radical shadow cabinet reshuffle took place and Labour's standing slowly but surely started to improve, helped by many new senior and not so senior Labour activists travelling the country off their own steam, listening to voters concerns, firmly but empatheticly mentioning their proposals and apologising to many groups, not least the Jewish Community for the nastiness and rigidity of the Corbyn era

MARCH 2020
Gove asked Yvette Cooper to help form a coalition which Cooper refused, although she attended informal initial talks with the aim of knowing what the Conservative lines were and making sure they were well aware of what Labour's lines are. All of this is with the view that a general election may be imminent. Meanwhile both parties promised substantial financial aid to coastal towns and cities, Northern Ireland, where there was a growing clamour for some form of unity with the Irish Republic,  and for Scotland. The economy slowly improved but only with US aid and this hampered the UK from criticising Trump in any way, shape, or form. However the cost of living was now sky high with many parts of the U.K. destitute and some complaining about the aid others were getting while they felt their region was getting ignored! Many immigrants also left some parts of the U.K. with racism cited as a reason, while in others they were protected  This increased antagonism between various areas

MAY 2020
General Election. Conservatives 148, Labour 383, Liberal Democrats 50, SNP 45. While it was a landslide, the Liberal Democrats gave public informal support to the government. Many expected a long and difficult ride. Meanwhile with Trump low in the Polls and facing resignation over RussiaGate, Prime Minister Cooper, through back channels, spoke with the leading Democrat Candidates about a new deal should they win in November. A fresh deal with the EU was being considered with many British people calling for a fresh arrangement, whether a full return or a deal along something akin to the Norwegian model. Citizens forums were being encouraged so groups start listening to each other's  concerns, and this was readily accepted, with many in the UK fed up with the current situation. AV and PR were also being seriously considered again and likewise the prospect of a new voting system gained public support with the hope this may change things for the better. Meanwhile a fresh deal with the Irish Republic was made regarding a backstop and no one being in a fit position to disagree and talks with Scotland commenced preparing the ground for possible independence. Even now in 2039 it will take many years for the UK to recover and it is still a poverty ridden country, much progress has been made and as we know we now have a federal country with a loose financial deal with the EU with special arrangements for Northern Ireland. People are too frightened of the alternatives


Comments

Unknown said…
We need more pieces like this to explore the range of possibilities.

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