An Imminent Republican Party Split?
With polarisation in American politics as it is, with things so bad it makes Watergate look like an ordinary time in a healthy democracy, one wonders about the state of the US Republican Party
If you are not, imagine you are an ordinary moderate Republican. You were disgusted by Nixon's behaviour over Watergate, supported Reagan and the two Bush Presidents. You did not agree with everything they said or did, but by and large you were happy with them.
However Trump is something else, you see him exactly for what he is, you see the events of 6th January for what they are. You see the mealy mouthed comments from Republicans in Congress, their refusal to impeach Trump, their denials that an insurrection was an insurrection, the way Kevin McCarthy and Lindsay Graham take the bended knee to Trump, and feel sick. You don't want to vote Republican in the midterms and while you reluctantly voted Democrat in 2020, it was out of convenience, not ideological agreement
What do you do?
Well there are reports that some are planning on forming a breakaway Party. Some argue that can only happen if there are breakaway Democrats, but I think that given Joe Biden is President, that is unlikely to happen. However the GOP is firmly in Trump's hands because senior Republicans are at best gutless and at worst disgustingly opportunistic. I think it will happen because there is only so much some moderate Republicans will take and nature abhors a vacuum. The question is when
If it is after November 2022, then obviously the MidTerms will play their part. I suspect the Republicans will lose further seats or keep what they have with no gains made, but I also think it is likely that they will remain essentially a Trump cult following. At that point there will possibly be a breakaway
However those planning to make their move need to start making firm decisions now if they want an up and running Party by 2024. They also need to see this as part of a long term project to save US democracy rather than immediate gains or losses and those leading need to ask themselves which they value more, their country or their political career? Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Lindsay Graham have faced that choice and have made their decision. From an outsiders perspective, the US is dangling on a democratic precipice, in spite of November's election results and their being ratified. How the US reacts in the next seventeen months is crucial and one needs to see some guts in fighting Trumpism from the Republican side, as well as the Democrats. We also need to see a major healing of the US nation, where people need to stop seeing those who are in a different political party as morally inferior. That has been going on for far too long and, on the Republican side, has led to them embracing Trump